Year: 2022

Review and Outlook (August 22, 2022)

Fortnight in Review In the uneventful two weeks, the US equities retained momentum initially but declined afterwards. The S&P 500 Index gained 2.0%, and the USD Index increased 1.4%. With strong CPI inflation expectation, Euro was below USD parity for the first time in 20 years. RMB dropped 1% to 6.83RMB/USD. Hang Seng Index was […]
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Review and Outlook (August 8, 2022)

Fortnight in Review On July 27, the Fed raised the Federal Fund Rate of 75 bps to 2.25-2.50% unsurprisingly. The market speculated that rapid rate hike would come to an end and the CPI inflation had peaked with weak energy prices. The stock market showed strength and the S&P 500 Index rebounded 4.6% in the […]
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Review and Outlook (July 25, 2022)

Fortnight in Review On July 13, US published CPI inflation of 9.1%, a 30-year high. The Fed will decide the interest hike on July 27. According the Fed rate futures, the probability of 75 bps hike (to 2.25-2.50%) is 77%, and the probability of 100bps hike (to 2.50-2.75%) is 23%. The market speculated that the […]
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Review and Outlook (July 11, 2022)

Fortnight in Review In the uneventful two weeks, the US equities did not fluctuate much and the S&P 500 Index slightly declined 0.3%. The USD Index rose sharply to 108.23 from 104.11 (+4.0%). The two major counterparty currencies, EUR and JPY, both dropped significantly. Euro dropped as the Euro Zone’s inflation was even higher than […]
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Review and Outlook (June 27, 2022)

Fortnight in Review On June 16, The Fed announced a rate target hike of 75bps to 1.50-1.75%, a radical move to deal with the 8.6% CPI inflation earlier. The US market then rebounded afterwards showing a V-shape, due to lack of further events. The S&P 500 Index was flat at 3900 in the past two […]
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Review and Outlook (June 13, 2022)

Fortnight in Review The U.S. CPI reached a 40-year high of 8.6% last Friday, exceeding the market consensus of 8.3%. The financial market responded with a sharp drop of stocks and rise of USD Index, as the hope of a mitigating inflation busted. In the past two weeks, S&P 500 Index declined to 3900 from […]
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Review and Outlook (May 30, 2022)

Fortnight in Review In the uneventful two weeks, S&P 500 Index registered a 3.4% rebound after a dip initially. USD Index declined to 101.48 from 104.48 (down 2.9%); RMB appreciated 2.8% against USD to 6.66 RMB/USD. Hang Seng Index was up 6.0% in the past two weeks, accumulating a 9.8% decline year-to-day, compared to a […]
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Review and Outlook (May 16, 2022)

Fortnight in Review On May 4, The Fed raised fund rate by 50 bp to 75-100 bp. However, the comments of Fed Chairman Powell was interpreted dovish and the S&P 500 Index rebounded by 3% on that day. The market then continued to go down and registered a 2.6% loss in the past two weeks. […]
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Review and Outlook (May 3, 2022)

Fortnight in Review The market expects the Fed to raise fund rate by 50 bps to 75-100 bps. Consequently, the US stocks and bonds were down and the USD Index was up. The S&P 500 Index was down 3.3% last week, registering a 12.8% loss year-to-date. RMB kept depreciation rapidly, dropping from 6.38 RMB/USD to […]
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